Financial Markets

Economist Predicts Trump Victory and Republican Congressional Sweep in 2024

Economist Predicts Trump Victory and Republican Congressional Sweep in 2024

Fox News correspondent Bill Melugin reports that the renowned economist Christophe Barraud is forecasting an Election Day triumph for former President Trump in the 2024 presidential election, with Republicans predicted to regain control of Congress in a decisive manner. Barraud, the chief economist and strategist at Market Securities Monaco and recognized as the 'world's most accurate economist,' suggests that U.S. economic growth will gain momentum following the election. Barraud bases his prediction on various indicators, including betting markets, polls, election modelers' forecasts, and financial markets. He noted on social media that the most probable outcomes at present are a Trump victory and a Republican sweep of Congress.

Since 2012, Barraud has been ranked as the top U.S. economic forecaster by Bloomberg. Despite his positive projection for economic growth, he warns that if Vice President Kamala Harris secures the presidency with a split Congress, financial yields could drop since markets have already priced in a Republican win. In such a scenario, market corrections could occur, Barraud further explained. If Trump wins and Congress is divided between parties, his ambitions to reduce taxes for corporations and households may face obstacles. In such a case, Trump might intensify his focus on tariffs, potentially impacting global growth, Barraud informed Business Insider. However, the economist considers a Republican Congressional sweep the most likely outcome.

As the election approaches, both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are approximately 10 days away from competing for the White House. Barraud projects that with a Republican majority, Trump could implement corporate and household tax cuts and shift his focus to domestic policies, which might lead to a GDP increase between 2.1% and 2.3% in 2025. Nevertheless, Barraud highlights a potential risk in Trump's policy approach: tax cuts without corresponding funding measures could enlarge the national deficit. Should Trump foster a Republican majority, the 10-year Treasury Bond yield is expected to spike to 4.5% from the current 4.23% and climb further to 5% with a full Republican Congress.

Reporter Louis Casiano covers this development for Fox News Digital, emphasizing the potential economic implications and near-term growth forecasts associated with Trump's potential victory and the Republican's return to power.