Global gold supply is projected to increase by 1% in 2025, according to a recent report by Metal Focus, a leading precious metals consultancy. This anticipated growth is primarily driven by rising mine production, a key factor shaping the gold market landscape. The annual publication, renowned for its comprehensive data and forecasts, highlights a complex market environment characterized by an elevated supply coupled with a decline in jewelry fabrication demand, expected to weaken by 9%. Despite this downward pressure on jewelry demand, Metal Focus anticipates that gold prices will achieve a new record annual average of $3,210 per ounce, fueled by investor concerns surrounding the prevailing economic and geopolitical uncertainties. In 2024, global mine output reached an unprecedented high of 3,661 metric tons, and this trend is expected to continue with a modest increase to 3,694 tons in 2025. This expansion is underpinned by the launch of new mining projects and the sustained strength of key producing nations, including Mexico, Ghana, and Canada. Recycling activity, which reached a 12-year peak of 1,368 tons last year, largely due to significant contributions from China, is forecast to remain relatively stable in 2025. This stability is attributed to constrained near-market stocks and persistent bullish sentiment within the gold market. While the projected overall supply increase of 840 tons appears substantial, it represents a modest surplus considering the broader context of global demand and investment flows.

Notably, retail demand for jewelry is facing significant headwinds. Jewelry fabrication decreased by 9% in 2024 and is projected to decline further by 16% in 2025, with the most pronounced impact observed in price-sensitive regions such as India and China. High gold prices are acting as a deterrent, although some regional resilience persists when accounting for the substantial rise in value. Conversely, industrial demand has demonstrated surprising strength, particularly within the electronics sector. The rapid growth of AI-driven technology has spurred a 9% increase in consumption for 2024, a trend anticipated to continue with an additional 3% growth in 2025. However, other industrial applications, including dental and decorative uses, are exhibiting signs of decline, reflecting long-term structural shifts. Despite these varied trends, investment interest in gold remains robust, particularly among institutional investors and Asian retail buyers. This sustained interest is further bolstered by a volatile global economic environment and a growing sentiment towards de-dollarization. Concerns regarding escalating U.S. debt levels, potential interest rate adjustments, and prospective trade conflicts under the Trump administration have all contributed to a diversification strategy. Central banks’ continued purchasing activity plays a pivotal role.

In 2024, institutions acquired a record 1,086 tons of gold, and expectations for 2025 are set at 1,000 tons – marking the fourth consecutive year of bank acquisitions, emphasizing gold’s role as a safe haven asset. While Metal Focus acknowledges potential price corrections due to speculative activity, the overarching outlook for gold remains strongly supportive. Key indicators, such as the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), have shown a significant year-to-date increase of 26.04%. Further insights can be found in the Silver Tops $36, Triggering A Generational Technical Breakout Stock Score Locked: Want to See it? Benzinga Rankings give you vital metrics on any stock – anytime. © 2025 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.