News on Tuesday, 27th August, took the music industry by storm: Oasis are embarking on a reunion tour. I'm happy, albeit nervously, to admit that I am not the most avid Oasis fan. Sure, everybody loves 'Wonderwall,' 'Don't Look Back in Anger,' and 'Champagne Supernova,' but that's about all I can name. Despite my preference for another UK band, I found myself caught up in the excitement with the Oasis fan base. This included checking ticket sales, entering pre-ticket ballots (even Googling the original Oasis drummer), and ultimately reading up on the band's journey to success.
While exploring various biographies, I noticed that Oasis has an uncanny ability to time their major milestones with periods of extreme financial market volatility. Whether forming in 1990/91 during a recession, releasing their 'Definitely Maybe' album in 1994 amidst the Great Bond Massacre, or breaking up in August 2009 after the Global Financial Crisis, it makes one wonder: is the Oasis reunion tour a harbinger of future market turbulence?
When Liam Gallagher, Paul Arthurs, Paul McGuigan, and Tony McCarroll formed Oasis and invited Noel Gallagher to join, it's uncertain whether their focus was on creating groundbreaking music or if they were affected by the economic climate of the early '90s. High inflation, monetary policy shifts, an oil price shock from Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait, and growing consumer pessimism were all factors at the time. Regardless, both music and economic upheavals occurred simultaneously.
'Definitely Maybe,' released on 29th August 1994, became the fastest-selling debut album in the UK. Though the first two singles, 'Supersonic' and 'Shakermaker,' didn't break the Top 10, a streak of 22 consecutive Top 10 singles began with 'Live Forever.' During 1994, fixed income investors experienced a sharp rise in interest rates and widespread volatility that resulted in a challenging period for market participants, reminding them that yields can't continually decline without some inflationary kickback.
Arthurs and McGuigan's departure in 1999 could suggest their influence on the band's timing with market events. However, the Oasis saga continued, as the Gallaghers chose the next globally significant market turmoil—the Global Financial Crisis—to end the band. This breaking point came on 28th August 2009, when they were due to perform at the Rock en Seine festival in Paris. As the economy started to recover post-crisis, fans had to accept the band's breakup, which would have been more poignant had it occurred earlier.
The announcement of Oasis’s reunion tour on 27th August, nearly 30 years after the release of 'Definitely Maybe' and 15 years after the band's breakup, extends this pattern of aligning musical milestones with economic uncertainty. This raises questions about whether Liam and Noel Gallagher are signaling forthcoming market volatility. While some may consider these timing coincidences, the relationship between Oasis's major moments and financial upheavals is undeniably intriguing.
Therefore, I leave it to you to decide whether Oasis's reunion is a mere coincidence or a cryptic indicator of imminent financial market volatility. With the current economic cycle at an interesting juncture, and concerns about the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies, perhaps Noel and Liam have their own perspectives on the market's future. Or simply, luck has positioned their iconic moments alongside market turmoil. Time will tell.
