The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has released a new 'Analytical Note' aiming to evaluate the frequency and impact of monetary policy surprises on financial market instruments. These surprises are defined as instances where the market's expectation for the Official Cash Rate (OCR) deviates by more than 5 basis points from the rate actually announced.

According to the RBNZ, such monetary policy surprises are relatively uncommon. Since 2006, fewer than one in five OCR announcements have resulted in a material monetary policy surprise, as illustrated by the red dots in Figure 1 below. This rarity suggests that the RBNZ's communication and market expectations tend to align closely most of the time, minimizing the potential for unexpected shifts and volatility in financial markets.