The stage is set for what could be the pivotal moment in the campaign leading up to the November 5 U.S. presidential election – Tuesday night’s debate between Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican former President Donald Trump. The two candidates have never met each other or even talked on the phone, but on Tuesday they will be standing a short distance from each other behind lecterns at the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia. They are set to trade barbs with each other for 90 minutes while answering questions posed by ABC News anchors David Muir and Linsey Davis.
Tens of millions of Americans are likely to watch the encounter between the two presidential candidates in what could be the only debate of the campaign. The event takes place eight weeks before the official Election Day but only days ahead of when early voting starts in some of the country’s 50 states. National polling shows the contest to be close, making it all the more crucial for both candidates to make their best case in the debate for the small number of voters who haven’t already made up their mind. The debate carries high stakes: a chance for Trump to return to the White House after losing reelection in 2020 to President Joe Biden, or an opportunity for Harris, Biden’s second-in-command, to ascend further.
When Biden dropped his reelection bid in July following a stumbling debate against Trump in late June, he endorsed Harris as his successor, lending a unified front from the Democrats. At that time, Harris edged ahead of Trump in numerous national polls by a margin of two or three percentage points. A New York Times-Siena College poll released Sunday showed Trump with a 48-47% lead nationally even as the same poll indicated Harris ahead in several critical battleground states, including Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Both candidates were also tied in other crucial states such as Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina. These seven highly contested states are likely to play an outsized role in determining the election’s outcome given the U.S. Electoral College system.
Electoral College votes are state-based and reflect each state’s population; thus, the most populous states wield immense influence. The New York Times-Siena poll highlighted the high stakes for Harris, especially in terms of introducing herself to the American public. About 28% of respondents said they needed to know more about her, while only 9% felt the same about Trump. University of Michigan debate coach Aaron Kall remarked, “Tuesday night is one of the most highly anticipated and consequential presidential debates of all time. Trump is a seasoned debater but has a record of making controversial remarks, which might detract from substantive policy discussions.”
He added, “Harris, having just entered the race in July, needs to define herself clearly to voters. She must demonstrate her ability to critique Trump’s first term and recent actions while countering his attacks.” Kall also pointed out, “Both candidates should underscore their compelling biographies and unique qualifications to lead the country for the next four years. They need to make voters feel comfortable with the idea of them being president.” Harris has been prepping for the debate at a Pittsburgh hotel in Pennsylvania, engaging in several mock debates with a Trump-like stand-in, including television lighting and simulated moderator questions.
Trump has focused on policy briefings with aides, avoiding mock debates altogether. On the debate stage, the rules will mirror those from June. Each candidate’s microphone will be muted when the other speaks, with two minutes allotted to answer a moderator’s question and one minute for the other candidate to respond. Likely topics include abortion rights, U.S. immigration policies, crime rates, and personal character. Meanwhile, Trump and Harris have continued to exchange jabs from afar. Trump has belittled Harris on Fox News, implying she is less intelligent than Biden, whom he claims “is smarter than she is.”
Harris has not held back either. At the Democratic National Convention last month, she described Trump as “an unserious man” while stressing the serious consequences of his potential return to the White House. The U.S. Supreme Court’s recent ruling that insulates future U.S. presidents from prosecution while in office has also been a point of contention. Harris warned, “Just imagine Donald Trump with no guardrails, using the immense powers of the presidency not to improve your life or strengthen national security, but to serve his only client—himself.”
