Cruditechnical analysis – The market ignores OPEC and focuses on growth Fundamental Overview Crude oil prices experienced a decline on Friday, driven by concerns regarding potential economic growth slowdown following the release of a softer-than-expected US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report. While the market's reaction seemed disproportionate at first glance, a closer examination revealed that the positioning had already unwound swiftly, anticipating a less robust report. The recent OPEC+ meeting, where the group agreed to increase oil production by 547,000 barrels per day for September, effectively completed the reversal of voluntary output cuts implemented in 2023. Crucially, the market had already priced this move into its forecasts months prior, leading to a negligible market reaction. Currently, the primary focus is shifting towards economic data releases and the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy decisions, as these factors will significantly influence growth expectations in the coming months. The trade tariff disputes, which had been a significant market consideration, are now largely priced in, with most analysts anticipating a resolution within the 10-20% tariff range. Looking ahead, the overall economic outlook suggests that growth and inflation are likely to remain elevated, supported by the Fed’s forward guidance indicating a continued bias towards easing monetary policy. This supportive environment should maintain market stability, but overall, crude oil prices are expected to remain range-bound, oscillating between the $60 and $80 price level. This rangebound movement reflects the interplay of supply, demand, and macroeconomic factors.

Crude Oil Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe On the daily chart, crude oil is currently trading within a defined range, anchored by key support and resistance levels. Specifically, the asset is trading between the 64.00 support zone and the 72.00 resistance level. Technical analysis suggests that buyers will likely continue to step in around the support, establishing a defined risk management strategy below this level to target a potential move back towards the 72.00 resistance. Conversely, sellers will require a sustained break below the support level to trigger a more significant downward trend, potentially leading to a drop towards the 55.00 handle. Monitoring these levels is crucial for traders to make informed decisions and manage risk effectively. The daily timeframe provides a valuable perspective on the overall trend and potential turning points.

Crude Oil Technical Analysis – 4 Hour Timeframe Analyzing the 4-hour chart reveals further insights into crude oil’s price action. The asset recently probed above a minor resistance level around the 69.00 mark, but failed to sustain the breakout, subsequently falling below this level after the release of the weaker-than-expected NFP data. This indicates a lack of clear directional signals at this timeframe. From a risk management standpoint, traders should focus on accumulating positions around the support level, while sellers should remain cautious, anticipating potential buying pressure around resistance levels. This approach helps to mitigate risk and capitalize on potential price movements. The 4-hour chart provides a more granular view of short-term trends and key price action.

Crude Oil Technical Analysis – 1 Hour Timeframe Examining the 1-hour chart, the most recent swing high level sits at 67.80, which could act as a key resistance level. Traders should anticipate sellers stepping in around this level, implementing a defined risk management strategy above the swing point to position for a potential drop into the support. Conversely, buyers will seek a break higher to increase bullish bets, targeting the 69.00 resistance level. The average daily range for today is also defined by red lines, providing valuable context for short-term trading decisions. Understanding these levels and incorporating them into trading strategies can improve the chances of success. This timeframe offers the most immediate signals and is particularly useful for short-term traders.

Upcoming Catalysts Several upcoming economic data releases will undoubtedly impact crude oil prices. Tomorrow, the US Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will release its Services PMI data, while on Thursday, the latest US Jobless Claims figures will be announced. These releases will provide critical insights into the health of the US economy and, consequently, influence market sentiment regarding oil demand and supply dynamics.