Good morning and welcome to the last trading day of the week this October 18th. As we start the day, the US dollar is showing weakness, with noticeable movements in the major currency pairs. Today, we'll dive into the technical aspects influencing the EUR/USD, USD/JPY, and GBP/USD.
Beginning with the EUR/USD, there's a rebound today after the pair hit its lowest point since August 2nd yesterday, before bouncing back by the close. This upward move is nudging the price towards a significant technical zone. This area is defined by several key indicators, including the 200-day moving average, a notable swing level, the 61.8% retracement from the rally starting in July, and the declining 100-hour moving average.
These sit between the ranges of 1.0871 and 1.08746. For traders, the pivotal decision revolves around whether the price stays below this technical cluster, favoring a bearish outlook. Conversely, surpassing these levels could signal a win for the bulls, at least in the short-term. A drop to the downside past the 1.08248 mark may trigger a decline towards the August low of 1.0777.
Turning our attention to the USD/JPY, the currency pair is currently interacting significantly with its 100-hour moving average, sitting at 149.615. Over the past three trading days, the price has repeatedly approached this average, testing the waters below but finding limited success. Earlier today, the rate revisited this moving average and renewed buying interest emerged.
The critical decision for traders is whether the price can maintain levels above this average, which would suggest buyer dominance. Should the price dip below this, and further slip past the 200-hour moving average at 149.19, it would indicate a short-term bias towards the sellers.
Lastly, for the GBP/USD, recent movements have steered the pair towards key support near its 100-day moving average and the 61.8% retracement of the ascent from August's lows. These levels are approximately 1.2958, with yesterday's low reaching 1.29729. The subsequent recovery has nudged prices above the 50% retracement level of 1.30488, and currently trades near this mark.
On the hourly chart, a move above the 100-hour (1.3033) and 200-hour (1.3053) moving averages was noted, peaking at 1.30704. Nevertheless, it has since retreated to oscillate between these moving averages. For short-term traders, a break above the 200-hour average could solidify a bullish bias, while a drop below the 100-hour average would increase bearish tendencies.