WASHINGTON — Democrats' giddy optimism about Vice President Kamala Harris beating former President Donald Trump — well, that bubble will burst if Harris does not perform well in the debate Tuesday night. Performing well isn't easily defined. As the saying goes, we'll know it when we see it. It could mean avoiding mistakes, delivering a memorable one-liner, or handling insults with grace. It could also be about who connects best with undecided voters in swing states who will ultimately decide the next president.
The winner is unlikely to be the one who best explains tariffs or tax policies. Instead, performing well means explaining complex policies simply or vaguely enough to do no harm to their primary goal: winning enough votes in battleground states to secure the 270 electoral votes needed to become president next January. This 90-minute showdown, starting at 8 p.m. Chicago time, will be held at the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia and is the only debate booked so far. ABC News is hosting the event, and other networks will also use its feed.
Observations: Reality check, national poll: The Harris campaign, launched on July 21 after Biden's exit, coincides with a new national poll from the New York Times and Siena College showing a statistical tie. Voters want to know more about Harris, who did a great job introducing herself at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago last month. At the United Center, Harris had ample time, videos, and a loving introduction from her husband, Doug Emhoff.
The debate will have time constraints, so it will be interesting to see how Harris uses this opportunity to make herself better known. In contrast, people are familiar with Trump, whose poll numbers have held steady despite his controversial claims about his wealth. Trump often boasts about his greatness. If he follows this path during the debate, it could give Harris an opening. Last February, a New York judge ordered Trump to pay $355 million in penalties for civil fraud involving his real estate company. Unlike Trump, Harris has lived in the real world without immense wealth.
She connects with people through everyday activities, like cooking. When she took a break from debate prep on Saturday, she visited a spice shop in Pittsburgh, purchasing items like Creamy Peppercorn Dressing Base and Tuscan Sunset Salt-Free Italian Seasoning. Reality check, battleground state polls: A new CBS/YouGov poll shows Harris with a tiny lead in Michigan and Wisconsin and a tie in Pennsylvania. Neither candidate has room for error.
Taking the bait: Presidential debates are performances. Trump seems easier to provoke into making ridiculous statements that could harm his campaign. For instance, Trump deliberately mispronounces Harris' name, calling her 'Komrade' or 'Comrade Kamala' to marginalize her. At the convention, Harris' grandnieces and actor Kerry Washington cleverly taught the crowd to pronounce Kamala as 'Comma-La,' subtly criticizing Trump. During the debate, Harris and Trump might address each other as Mr. President and Madame Vice President. Let’s see what happens on this front.
Muted microphones: Harris and Trump will have their microphones muted when it isn't their turn to speak. Although the Harris team initially wanted the mics always on, they eventually agreed to this format. During her debate with then-Vice President Mike Pence in October 2020, Harris famously insisted, 'Mr. Vice President, I’m speaking. I’m speaking,' which went viral and worked to her advantage. Even with muted microphones, both can still interrupt each other. They aren't muzzled, after all.
