Analysis

Netflix Leads S&P 500 with Strong Q3 Results and Bright Future Outlook

Netflix Leads S&P 500 with Strong Q3 Results and Bright Future Outlook

Netflix (NFLX) shares soared to lead the S&P 500 on Friday following a better-than-expected third quarter performance. The streaming titan not only surpassed Wall Street's top- and bottom-line forecasts, it also unveiled an upbeat projection for its upcoming quarter. For the three months ending September 30th, Netflix reported a 15% growth in revenue, clocking in at $9.83 billion. This surge was primarily fueled by a 14% increase in global streaming subscriptions, reaching 282.72 million users. Moreover, earnings per share (EPS) saw a significant leap, rising 45% year-over-year to $5.40, exceeding analysts' predictions, who expected revenues of $9.77 billion and EPS of $5.12 as per CNBC's data.

Wall Street's positive sentiment around Netflix is evident, with the stock outperforming the broader market in 2024, achieving a 55% rise compared to the S&P 500's 23% gain. Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, Netflix anticipates another 15% revenue growth. Further underscoring its optimism, the company expects paid net additions to surpass those of the third quarter. This projection positions Netflix for a robust 15% annual revenue growth, hitting the upper end of its previously stated expectations of 14% to 15%. Highlighting its confidence, Netflix stated, "We're pleased that we've reaccelerated our growth and, as we head into 2025, we expect to deliver solid revenue and profit growth by both improving our core series and film offering while investing in new growth initiatives like ads and gaming."

This bullish outlook extends into 2025, with anticipated revenues ranging between $43 billion and $44 billion, representing an 11% to 13% rise from its 2024 forecast of $38.9 billion. This growth trajectory is expected to stem from an upswing in paid memberships and an enhancement in the revenue per membership. The market's enthusiasm for Netflix remains strong. S&P Global Market Intelligence reveals a consensus among 48 analysts covering the stock, with a 'Buy' recommendation for the popular Magnificent 7 stock. Despite a prevailing target price of $745.21, which is slightly below the current share price, analysts are likely to adjust their forecasts upward in light of Netflix's robust earnings results.

Following the solid performance, Needham, a financial services entity, has already increased its target price on NFLX to $800 from $700 while retaining its 'Buy' stance. Needham analyst Laura Martin cited Netflix's impressive Q3 subscriber growth, encouraging full-year revenue outlook, and an enhanced 2024 free cash flow forecast ranging between $6 billion and $6.5 billion as key drivers for potential future share price gains. Given these catalysts, investors may see continued strength in NFLX's share performance in the coming periods.