Elections often reveal more about the failures than the successes of political parties. Pennsylvania’s 2024 results exposed a significant Democratic collapse: Donald Trump narrowly beat Kamala Harris by two points in the presidential race, and Republicans swept all down-ballot statewide contests. Dave McCormick clinched a tight victory against three-term Senator Bob Casey. Dave Sunday defeated Eugene DePasquale by five points in the attorney general race, while incumbent Tim DeFoor outpaced Malcolm Kenyatta by an even wider margin for auditor general.
The Democrats' fumble in Pennsylvania unfolded in the campaign’s final weeks, where Trump’s team saturated working-class neighborhoods with clear, impactful messaging such as 'Trump: Safe Borders/Kamala: Open Borders' and 'Trump: Low Inflation/Harris: High Inflation.' Their strategic 'Kamala is for they/them' advertisement, despite legal threats, effectively highlighted the Democrats' fixation on niche issues over pressing economic concerns. Simultaneously, Harris’s campaign struggled with culturally tone-deaf, high-production ads that failed to resonate with Pennsylvania’s working-class ethos.
Harris’s team orchestrated what they anticipated as an October surprise: joint appearances with the unpopular former Republican Liz Cheney, fixated on 'saving democracy.' These rallies, predominantly in affluent suburbs, underscored a fundamental misunderstanding of Pennsylvania’s political landscape. A desperate attempt to resonate with the working class involved an insincere commercial featuring a supposed local attacking Trump — an effort perceived as disingenuous among actual working-class voters.
This messaging disconnect permeated Democratic campaigns. DePasquale, for attorney general, highlighted his fiscal experience but lacked prosecutorial credentials — a strategic flaw against Sunday's emphasis on law enforcement successes. Sunday’s campaign harnessed social media, showcasing dramatic drug busts and arrests, creating a stark contrast to DePasquale’s theoretical approach. Similarly, Kenyatta’s auditor general campaign underscored deeper Democratic issues. His campaign for office transformation as a social change vehicle was impractical compared to DeFoor’s straightforward agenda focused on efficiency and taxpayer protection.
Bob Casey, known for moderate, labor-supporting politics, struggled for votes, hindered by his partial alignment with progressive policies. McCormick’s campaign capitalized on this, attacking Casey’s shifting positions and his association with Harris. Meanwhile, Casey’s campaign resorted to frantic fundraising emails with exaggerated doom-laden messages, which seemed to affirm his image as a losing candidate.
These outcomes reveal a flawed Democratic coalition strategy, which aimed to unify urban progressives and anti-Trump suburbs, hoping to retain enough working-class support. However, this approach failed catastrophically, leaving no group fully addressed. Governor Josh Shapiro, speculated as Harris’s running mate, exemplified these contradictions with a lackluster governance record, signing a historically low number of bills.
The implications of this failure are profound. Despite Pennsylvania’s declining population, its 19 electoral votes and competitive Senate seats remain crucial for any Democratic success. The state office victories, wider than the presidential margin, indicate deeper issues than individual candidate weaknesses. Like in past elections, Democrats attempted to balance progressive demands with suburban appeasement, lacking genuine working-class policies.
This election cycle signals that unless the Democrats recalibrate their message to reach beyond urban hubs and cultivate capable candidates, Pennsylvania, once a viable state for them, may signify a permanent political shift. Their relentless focus on crafting the perfect coalition has ironically left them with a fractured base.
