Several hotly contested New York congressional races could decide which party controls Congress for the next years after the Empire State surprisingly tilted the balance in favor of the GOP two years ago. Currently, there are 220 Republicans and 211 Democrats as the GOP looks to hold onto power in the Nov. 5 elections. Democrats, on the other hand, are aiming to reclaim the gavel in this deeply blue state with presidential pick Kamala Harris at the top of the ticket. Four GOP wins in New York’s swing districts during the 2022 midterm elections helped secure the GOP majority, but now these first-term incumbents face tough re-election battles. Three other races are also considered potentially competitive.
The Democrats regained one seat in a February special election when Rep. Tom Suozzi won back House District 3, covering parts of Nassau County and Queens. This seat was vacated by the expulsion of first-term Republican Rep. George Santos, who was a serial fibber and convicted crook. Suozzi had previously represented the district but did not seek re-election in 2022 as he launched an ill-fated gubernatorial run. Key factors in this year’s races include the performance of former Republican President Donald Trump and Kamala Harris at the top of the ticket in these purple districts, as well as how that performance might influence down-ballot races, according to political insiders.
Additionally, this is the first presidential election since the U.S. Supreme Court overturned the 1973 Roe vs. Wade ruling, effectively leaving abortion legislation up to state governments. Over the summer, the Super PAC for the Democratic Congressional Committee and other allied groups went on the offensive, running millions of dollars in TV ads attacking Republicans as anti-women. In response, the incumbents' campaigns ran counter ads asserting that they oppose imposing a national ban on abortion. It’s important to note that New York has one of the nation’s strongest abortion rights laws.
Republicans argue that voters are with them on major bread-and-butter issues. They intend to put Democrats on the defensive regarding the inflation-impacted economy during the Harris-Biden years, crime, and illegal immigration. Democrats, however, are optimistic about picking up seats. “Eight weeks out from Election Day, New York Democrats are building formidable campaigns to reach every voter possible across Long Island, the Hudson Valley, and Central New York,” said Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokesperson Ellie Dougherty.
Meanwhile, their Republican opponents are focused on what they describe as Democrats' disastrous record on issues such as restricting abortion rights, slashing Social Security and Medicare, and defunding law enforcement. State Republican Party chairman Ed Cox underscored that the major issues a broad swath of voters care about—the economy, illegal immigration, and crime—favor Republicans. “The impact of inflation has cut into the incomes of workers by 5% to 15%,” Cox stated. He also noted that Republican Rep. Brandon Williams’s bid for re-election “looks better” than the Cook Political Report ranking suggests.
The four key races to watch according to the Cook Political Report rankings include: District 4 (Suffolk/East End) with Republican Rep. Anthony D’Esposito and Democrat Laura Gillen (former Hempstead Town supervisor); District 17 (Lower Hudson Valley: Rockland, Westchester, Putnam) featuring Republican Rep. Mike Lawler and former Democratic Rep. Mondaire Jones; District 19 (Upper Hudson Valley/Southern Tier: Broome, Chenango, Columbia, Cortland, Delaware, Greene, Sullivan, Tioga, and Tompkins counties) is a rematch from 2022 between Republican Rep. Marc Molinaro and Democrat Josh Riley; District 22 (Syracuse region — Onondaga, Oneida, and Madison counties) has Republican Rep. Brandon Williams, a naval submarine officer and businessman, up against Democrat John Mannion, a current state senator and former teacher.
Other competitive races with incumbents holding an edge include: District 1 (Suffolk/East End) with Republican Rep. Nick La Lota facing Democrat John Avlon, rated as likely Republican; District 3 (Nassau, Queens) featuring Democratic Rep. Tom Suozzi against Republican Mike LiPetri, rated as likely Democrat; and District 18 (Dutchess, Orange counties) with Democratic Rep. Pat Ryan against Republican Alison Esposito (retired NY deputy inspector), rated as lean Democrat.
