ESPN is forecasting a significant return to form for 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy in the 2024-2025 season, following a challenging 2023 campaign. While Purdy’s 2023 season couldn’t have gone much worse, marked by losses in nearly every close game he played, it’s important to acknowledge that the 49ers’ struggles were a team effort, with Purdy not solely responsible. However, during critical moments when key offensive stars were unavailable, Purdy’s performance faltered, failing to deliver the necessary leadership and production the team required. Now, with many of those star offensive players returning to full health – including wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk’s expected mid-season return – ESPN believes Purdy will rediscover his earlier success. Analyst Eric Karabell notes, "2023’s No. 6 QB regressed some in 2024, certainly in part because of the health of others surrounding him."
Despite a somewhat disappointing 2024, Purdy still showcased considerable talent, finishing third in yards per attempt and more than doubling his rushing production, demonstrating his potential as a reliable quarterback. The 49ers’ decisive long-term investment in Purdy underscores their confidence in his abilities, and he possesses the fundamental skills to be a solid, safe QB1 option in fantasy football leagues. However, there are legitimate concerns to consider, particularly from a fantasy football perspective. Purdy’s interception rate has steadily increased over the past three seasons, rising from 2.4 percent in 2022 to 2.5 percent in 2023 and culminating in 2.6 percent in 2024. This trend is concerning, especially considering the league average interception rate was 2.2 percent last season.
Furthermore, Purdy’s touchdown percentage has also declined over the same period, decreasing from 7.6 percent in 2022 to 7.0 percent in 2023 and falling to a less desirable 4.4 percent in 2024. The league average touchdown percentage was 4.5 percent last season, highlighting another worrying trend. A key factor contributing to these issues is Purdy’s limited field vision. Due to his stature, he often throws blindly, anticipating receiver positioning rather than thoroughly scanning the field. This approach can lead to spectacular completions but also significantly increases the risk of interceptions. To improve his performance and avoid further regression, Purdy needs to prioritize checking the ball down to his running backs, utilizing a more strategic and efficient passing game. This shift in approach could dramatically alter his statistics and solidify his position as a dependable fantasy football asset.